Lightning-sparked fires to likely increase, UC Merced researchers find

Wildfire blazes on a forested mountain at night.

On Sept. 2, thunderstorms ravaged Central California. The Sierra Nevada foothills saw several large fires sparked by lightning strikes. More than 19 square miles of land were burned through. 

In a recent paper published in Earth’s Future, researchers at UC Merced warn that climate change is likely to increase both cloud-to-ground lightning and the risk of lightning-caused wildfires. The study employed a machine-learning technique called “convolutional neural networks” to project future lightning over the western United States.

The study also found that dry lightning, which strikes outside of rainstorms, is particularly dangerous. In anticipation of more lightning-caused fire events, researchers suggest forest management and community preparation for large wildfires and a warming planet. 

“Lightning is a big wild card when it comes to the outcome of fire seasons here in California and other parts of the western U.S.,” said co-author and CITRIS researcher John Abatzoglou. “Some of the biggest fire seasons, like 2020, really got going due to widespread lightning outbreaks in summer.”

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